There will be no Ukraine in a few years. Every penny “invested” that doesn’t get kicked back under the table may as well be lit on fire, and by forcing Russia to develop a symmetric capability far from the conflict zone that cannot be destroyed by any weapons that Europe has or could hope to have they are creating a massive power differential that can only end with yet another stunning defeat once the time comes for Europe to actually attack.
And attack they will. The result will be the same as every other time: total defeat and another century of hate culminating with yet another suicide by cop. They are incapable of backing down because it will mean the end of these politicians.
Expect continuous “accidents” at these new facilities. And in Ukraine the Russians will wait until the full investment has been made and the plant is about to produce a finished product and bomb it to dust with all of the skilled laborers inside. Anyone underwriting these loans is a fucking idiot, and that pretty much describes Europe these days.
Truly insightful article that has finally helped me understand why the Euro elites keep pushing the war despite it being obvious that Ukraine was getting creamed. I had a vague notion that it was about the dire economic situation Europe is in but the way you have synthesized all the information to provide a crisp clear explanation is excellent. The immorality of our elites really knows no bounds.
The problem for them is that by the time they ramp up production, Russia will likely have the parts of Ukraine it actually wants, and will be amenable to a ceasefire to prevent it from invading the low-value parts of Ukraine it would love to stick the EU with rebuilding.
"The EU is still importing the majority of its military products, heavily benefiting the US and non-EU states like Turkey" - this is ultimately the reason the US pressured EU to rotate its future government spending power so heavily into defense. The actual impact to EU defense firms are essentially kickbacks for the Atlanticist milieu. Big ticket items like aerospace will be US based.
Already the war already sent the generation of military hardware of late 20th-century vintage into retirement by obsolescence or often physical destruction.
The effect on budget balance also locks in future austerity, ie under investment in people and infrastructure.
The ratios of job creation described are especially enlightening.
The same flawed argument again...Russia would NEVER have invaded if Ukraine had NATO Article 5 "protection"...but just the same, Russia will invade NATO after Ukraine, Article 5 be damned 🤣 This is an infantile assessment.
If the British are defied “Then they shall knock on every door, purse in Hand.” - Frederick The Great. Prussian King during the Seven Years War, for which he received enormous British Subsidies. As did the Colonial Militias in America, subsidizing 40% of the costs (trying clawing it back sparked revolution).
The subsidy and arming of allies is Anglo then American policy for centuries, see also Lend Lease.
So is there any chance for Russia to achieve the minimum standards for a victory? The Russian budget looks very bad. Jacob Dreizin says they have at most until mid-2026 to win and end the war. But Europe, meantime, has just to keep the Ukraine floating until Russia wears down. So how on earth can Russia win? Even if they take some more territory, the 'root causes' and security issues will never be solved in its favor without a regime change (which looks impossible).
I think you have been brainwashed by mainstream media. Russia can keep this up indefinitely and their long term economic situation is actually far more durable and stable than the EU or even America. And their manufacturing is all local.
Year 2025 deficit estimates: Russian gov 2.6% GDP deficit during wartime (ie they're absorbing physical attacks on territory multiple times a week) ; US gov 6% GDP during peacetime. EU: 3.3% also during peacetime. By that measure Russia is experiencing less pressure than their adversaries in peacetime!
That's only if you trust those numbers. From what I understand calculating the deficit can be misleading, but I have to re-read Dreizin to bring more details.
GDP figures are inherently mushy, but the general situation is that Russian finances were very conservatively managed going into this conflict, both in absolute and relative terms, and both in terms of balance sheet (debt/assets) and flows (spending/income). The impact of sanctions was actually to reduce the money sent to Europe, with the reductions most significant in goods used by the wealthy which weren't absolutely necessary. Whereas industrial goods that are necessary were simply rotated to China, which also adds a cost savings. This freed up internal finances for an enormous ramp-up of domestic investment, which could never be justified if it were not for the sanctions regime. The most optimistic thing Russia's detractors could say is that there is now fairly high inflation and interest rates - high enough that a country with the US's debt load couldn't sustain it at all. In Russia's case, it can be sustained perhaps not indefinitely, but anyone who tells there is a financial limits in 2026 or 27 or 28 is selling you a pile of cope.
yeah let's instead trust the numbers that said they're in tatters, will collapse within months, and will scrap washing machines for microchips - in 2022
The Russians have various financial channels available via China and futures contracts on oil/gas/extractables that Russia can promise China.
Particularly things like Lithium since Russia has taken over most of the Lithium mines that the neoliberals dreamed of cashing out on when they engineered the 2014 Maidan coup.
Ukraine isn't floating, by the way. Ukraine is a hollowed out shell of an economy that exists purely on EU/U.S. dollars. When the war is over no one is going to be buying their products. The EU militaries won't be buying Ukrainian drones cobbled together from Chinese electronics, motors, and 3D-printed bodies.
the author's last article claims that Ukraine is meant to be a weapons manufacturer after the war due to very cheap labor and no regulations. But unless Russia completely destroys Ukraine, which seems impossible, it will be floating. At least, enough to serve as a poor shithole proxy.
Correct, well analysed and sourced. In Europe we are replacing one metal product with a new metal product, however if you look at USA and China, the technology companies are leading the board of top 50 most valued companies.
This is exactly what USA wants - if we burry our head into defence production, but still we are allowed to only produce low added value products (ammunition, tanks) because US wants us to use their F35, satellites etc, we shift our focus and resource out from technology, AI, computing power etc which US with China wants to dominate.
It is a trap which we are voluntarily running into, holding the Ukrainian flag and shouting - we, the group of willing will save the humanity and democracy in Europe. Whereas 2 largest economical engines, US and China does not give a damn about those values.
The purpose of this article is ostensibly to answer the question, “Why is Europe all-in on Ukraine?” But it does nothing of the sort. It goes into endless detail about WHAT is happening, but does nothing to answer WHY it is happening. Yes, it's obvious that manufacturing for private sector goods is being trashed, while simultaneously manufacturing for the military has been ramped up. Those two efforts go hand-in-hand, with Ukraine as some peripheral excuse. But why such an overall agenda was deliberately imposed is not addressed. Why the hatred for Russia? Why the Eurocrat hatred of their own damn people? Why why why? I have my own explanations, but it would have been nice to hear another perspective. Oh well, description masquerading as explanation is certainly de rigueur across the commentariat. It sells articles, and keeps the masses of midwits mollified. Nulla est solutio stultitiae. And so it goes....
Eric, did you miss the prominent through line of "to stave off economic decline?" I think I was more than explicit enough with this.
The rest of the explanation, and there is much more to it than just the economic angle, goes into the realm of speculation. It's worth examining but it's a very different kind of analysis. I actually have a draft I'm working on where I attempt to break down the political and business connections of various war hawk European leaders, but it's a much harder piece to write, because so much of that is deep under the surface.
I don't know why you'd ascribe bad faith intentions here, I'm certainly not making an effort to "mollify the masses" by breaking down how Europe is profiting off the deaths of thousands.
I am getting the impression that all those big contracts and staggering amounts of money spent are just that - money (or rather fake digital ones and zeroes) being slushed around in a cauldron of European / Ukrain corruption. This being the same "money" printed by the ECB since 2008 (and certainly since the crisis on the repo market in 2019, for which the Covid crisis was instigated). It sure won't arrive in the 'real' economy (the one where you and I work and buy groceries), but it does need somewhere to go, hence insane profits on the stock markets. It will sure make some people in industry and governments very rich, but I very much doubt whether it will lead to a defense industry that is capable of producing the tech and the amounts required to actually win this war (or any war).
There will be no Ukraine in a few years. Every penny “invested” that doesn’t get kicked back under the table may as well be lit on fire, and by forcing Russia to develop a symmetric capability far from the conflict zone that cannot be destroyed by any weapons that Europe has or could hope to have they are creating a massive power differential that can only end with yet another stunning defeat once the time comes for Europe to actually attack.
And attack they will. The result will be the same as every other time: total defeat and another century of hate culminating with yet another suicide by cop. They are incapable of backing down because it will mean the end of these politicians.
Expect continuous “accidents” at these new facilities. And in Ukraine the Russians will wait until the full investment has been made and the plant is about to produce a finished product and bomb it to dust with all of the skilled laborers inside. Anyone underwriting these loans is a fucking idiot, and that pretty much describes Europe these days.
Simplicius and Events In Ukraine have written about your comments at length, agreed.
Super good analysis
This is important, clear and information-rich. Well done.
Anyone still unaware that some people just love war and intend to get it should read this.
Truly insightful article that has finally helped me understand why the Euro elites keep pushing the war despite it being obvious that Ukraine was getting creamed. I had a vague notion that it was about the dire economic situation Europe is in but the way you have synthesized all the information to provide a crisp clear explanation is excellent. The immorality of our elites really knows no bounds.
The problem for them is that by the time they ramp up production, Russia will likely have the parts of Ukraine it actually wants, and will be amenable to a ceasefire to prevent it from invading the low-value parts of Ukraine it would love to stick the EU with rebuilding.
"The EU is still importing the majority of its military products, heavily benefiting the US and non-EU states like Turkey" - this is ultimately the reason the US pressured EU to rotate its future government spending power so heavily into defense. The actual impact to EU defense firms are essentially kickbacks for the Atlanticist milieu. Big ticket items like aerospace will be US based.
Already the war already sent the generation of military hardware of late 20th-century vintage into retirement by obsolescence or often physical destruction.
The effect on budget balance also locks in future austerity, ie under investment in people and infrastructure.
The ratios of job creation described are especially enlightening.
Because if Russia wins in Ukraine it will invade the next European country in its path? And so on, until it reaches the Atlantic.
Show any evidence of this. I think you are confusing Putin with Ji
Because Eurocuck politicians are retarded and fundamentally out of touch with the voters.
No. They are bought and paid for by the same (((tribe))) that runs and owns the USA like its poodle.
“Because of this, it’s highly unlikely that the EU will tolerate an early conclusion to the war in Ukraine. “
Nonsense Author.
Poland is next.
And Poland probably knows it.
The Russians would love to stop at the Dnipro and will discover- or anticipate already- they won’t even be allowed to stop at the Bug.
The same flawed argument again...Russia would NEVER have invaded if Ukraine had NATO Article 5 "protection"...but just the same, Russia will invade NATO after Ukraine, Article 5 be damned 🤣 This is an infantile assessment.
If the British are defied “Then they shall knock on every door, purse in Hand.” - Frederick The Great. Prussian King during the Seven Years War, for which he received enormous British Subsidies. As did the Colonial Militias in America, subsidizing 40% of the costs (trying clawing it back sparked revolution).
The subsidy and arming of allies is Anglo then American policy for centuries, see also Lend Lease.
Apparently now… Rammstein, call your office…
So is there any chance for Russia to achieve the minimum standards for a victory? The Russian budget looks very bad. Jacob Dreizin says they have at most until mid-2026 to win and end the war. But Europe, meantime, has just to keep the Ukraine floating until Russia wears down. So how on earth can Russia win? Even if they take some more territory, the 'root causes' and security issues will never be solved in its favor without a regime change (which looks impossible).
I think you have been brainwashed by mainstream media. Russia can keep this up indefinitely and their long term economic situation is actually far more durable and stable than the EU or even America. And their manufacturing is all local.
Year 2025 deficit estimates: Russian gov 2.6% GDP deficit during wartime (ie they're absorbing physical attacks on territory multiple times a week) ; US gov 6% GDP during peacetime. EU: 3.3% also during peacetime. By that measure Russia is experiencing less pressure than their adversaries in peacetime!
That's only if you trust those numbers. From what I understand calculating the deficit can be misleading, but I have to re-read Dreizin to bring more details.
GDP figures are inherently mushy, but the general situation is that Russian finances were very conservatively managed going into this conflict, both in absolute and relative terms, and both in terms of balance sheet (debt/assets) and flows (spending/income). The impact of sanctions was actually to reduce the money sent to Europe, with the reductions most significant in goods used by the wealthy which weren't absolutely necessary. Whereas industrial goods that are necessary were simply rotated to China, which also adds a cost savings. This freed up internal finances for an enormous ramp-up of domestic investment, which could never be justified if it were not for the sanctions regime. The most optimistic thing Russia's detractors could say is that there is now fairly high inflation and interest rates - high enough that a country with the US's debt load couldn't sustain it at all. In Russia's case, it can be sustained perhaps not indefinitely, but anyone who tells there is a financial limits in 2026 or 27 or 28 is selling you a pile of cope.
yeah let's instead trust the numbers that said they're in tatters, will collapse within months, and will scrap washing machines for microchips - in 2022
The Russians have various financial channels available via China and futures contracts on oil/gas/extractables that Russia can promise China.
Particularly things like Lithium since Russia has taken over most of the Lithium mines that the neoliberals dreamed of cashing out on when they engineered the 2014 Maidan coup.
Ukraine isn't floating, by the way. Ukraine is a hollowed out shell of an economy that exists purely on EU/U.S. dollars. When the war is over no one is going to be buying their products. The EU militaries won't be buying Ukrainian drones cobbled together from Chinese electronics, motors, and 3D-printed bodies.
the author's last article claims that Ukraine is meant to be a weapons manufacturer after the war due to very cheap labor and no regulations. But unless Russia completely destroys Ukraine, which seems impossible, it will be floating. At least, enough to serve as a poor shithole proxy.
Maybe so, but how many drones is Europe going to buy before they’re stocked up?
They’ll be giving Ukraine money to import drone components from China and slap them into 3D printed bodies.
Correct, well analysed and sourced. In Europe we are replacing one metal product with a new metal product, however if you look at USA and China, the technology companies are leading the board of top 50 most valued companies.
This is exactly what USA wants - if we burry our head into defence production, but still we are allowed to only produce low added value products (ammunition, tanks) because US wants us to use their F35, satellites etc, we shift our focus and resource out from technology, AI, computing power etc which US with China wants to dominate.
It is a trap which we are voluntarily running into, holding the Ukrainian flag and shouting - we, the group of willing will save the humanity and democracy in Europe. Whereas 2 largest economical engines, US and China does not give a damn about those values.
The purpose of this article is ostensibly to answer the question, “Why is Europe all-in on Ukraine?” But it does nothing of the sort. It goes into endless detail about WHAT is happening, but does nothing to answer WHY it is happening. Yes, it's obvious that manufacturing for private sector goods is being trashed, while simultaneously manufacturing for the military has been ramped up. Those two efforts go hand-in-hand, with Ukraine as some peripheral excuse. But why such an overall agenda was deliberately imposed is not addressed. Why the hatred for Russia? Why the Eurocrat hatred of their own damn people? Why why why? I have my own explanations, but it would have been nice to hear another perspective. Oh well, description masquerading as explanation is certainly de rigueur across the commentariat. It sells articles, and keeps the masses of midwits mollified. Nulla est solutio stultitiae. And so it goes....
Eric, did you miss the prominent through line of "to stave off economic decline?" I think I was more than explicit enough with this.
The rest of the explanation, and there is much more to it than just the economic angle, goes into the realm of speculation. It's worth examining but it's a very different kind of analysis. I actually have a draft I'm working on where I attempt to break down the political and business connections of various war hawk European leaders, but it's a much harder piece to write, because so much of that is deep under the surface.
I don't know why you'd ascribe bad faith intentions here, I'm certainly not making an effort to "mollify the masses" by breaking down how Europe is profiting off the deaths of thousands.
So basically it's all corruption designed to make us poorer and <1% of the people very very rich.
I am getting the impression that all those big contracts and staggering amounts of money spent are just that - money (or rather fake digital ones and zeroes) being slushed around in a cauldron of European / Ukrain corruption. This being the same "money" printed by the ECB since 2008 (and certainly since the crisis on the repo market in 2019, for which the Covid crisis was instigated). It sure won't arrive in the 'real' economy (the one where you and I work and buy groceries), but it does need somewhere to go, hence insane profits on the stock markets. It will sure make some people in industry and governments very rich, but I very much doubt whether it will lead to a defense industry that is capable of producing the tech and the amounts required to actually win this war (or any war).
So same as Russia then