So is there any chance for Russia to achieve the minimum standards for a victory? The Russian budget looks very bad. Jacob Dreizin says they have at most until mid-2026 to win and end the war. But Europe, meantime, has just to keep the Ukraine floating until Russia wears down. So how on earth can Russia win? Even if they take some more territory, the 'root causes' and security issues will never be solved in its favor without a regime change (which looks impossible).
Year 2025 deficit estimates: Russian gov 2.6% GDP deficit during wartime (ie they're absorbing physical attacks on territory multiple times a week) ; US gov 6% GDP during peacetime. EU: 3.3% also during peacetime. By that measure Russia is experiencing less pressure than their adversaries in peacetime!
That's only if you trust those numbers. From what I understand calculating the deficit can be misleading, but I have to re-read Dreizin to bring more details.
GDP figures are inherently mushy, but the general situation is that Russian finances were very conservatively managed going into this conflict, both in absolute and relative terms, and both in terms of balance sheet (debt/assets) and flows (spending/income). The impact of sanctions was actually to reduce the money sent to Europe, with the reductions most significant in goods used by the wealthy which weren't absolutely necessary. Whereas industrial goods that are necessary were simply rotated to China, which also adds a cost savings. This freed up internal finances for an enormous ramp-up of domestic investment, which could never be justified if it were not for the sanctions regime. The most optimistic thing Russia's detractors could say is that there is now fairly high inflation and interest rates - high enough that a country with the US's debt load couldn't sustain it at all. In Russia's case, it can be sustained perhaps not indefinitely, but anyone who tells there is a financial limits in 2026 or 27 or 28 is selling you a pile of cope.
The Russians have various financial channels available via China and futures contracts on oil/gas/extractables that Russia can promise China.
Particularly things like Lithium since Russia has taken over most of the Lithium mines that the neoliberals dreamed of cashing out on when they engineered the 2014 Maidan coup.
Ukraine isn't floating, by the way. Ukraine is a hollowed out shell of an economy that exists purely on EU/U.S. dollars. When the war is over no one is going to be buying their products. The EU militaries won't be buying Ukrainian drones cobbled together from Chinese electronics, motors, and 3D-printed bodies.
the author's last article claims that Ukraine is meant to be a weapons manufacturer after the war due to very cheap labor and no regulations. But unless Russia completely destroys Ukraine, which seems impossible, it will be floating. At least, enough to serve as a poor shithole proxy.
"The EU is still importing the majority of its military products, heavily benefiting the US and non-EU states like Turkey" - this is ultimately the reason the US pressured EU to rotate its future government spending power so heavily into defense. The actual impact to EU defense firms are essentially kickbacks for the Atlanticist milieu. Big ticket items like aerospace will be US based.
Already the war already sent the generation of military hardware of late 20th-century vintage into retirement by obsolescence or often physical destruction.
The effect on budget balance also locks in future austerity, ie under investment in people and infrastructure.
The ratios of job creation described are especially enlightening.
There are two major differences to keep in mind with regard to European defense spending during the Cold War vs now:
1. NATO member states tended to have lower deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios
2. It was a period of unprecedented economic growth. Some states peaked at 6% annual growth rates. In comparison, German growth today is essentially zero.
As far as energy goes, we'll have to see. My expectation is that the severing of Europe from Russian energy exports is permanent, and only a wave of total defeats of the current ruling parties across the EU would have any chance of changing that.
The problem for them is that by the time they ramp up production, Russia will likely have the parts of Ukraine it actually wants, and will be amenable to a ceasefire to prevent it from invading the low-value parts of Ukraine it would love to stick the EU with rebuilding.
What will be interesting is how much of the weapons make it to Ukraine, as Ukraine may settle or collapse. Ukraine has only settlement as a “win” now.
The rearmament of Europe is necessary in any case and always was, this is an awkward and brutal way to go about it.
In a good outcome they’ll be peace but Europe will be able to stand on its own on the other side of this, allowing America to disengage to a degree- which we are doing anyway- and a newly strong Europe can make better arrangements on its own for trade and their own economy.
The Green fever and the Bund Boomer model of comfortable decline will collapse in any case, hopefully not taking Europe with them.
If the British are defied “Then they shall knock on every door, purse in Hand.” - Frederick The Great. Prussian King during the Seven Years War, for which he received enormous British Subsidies. As did the Colonial Militias in America, subsidizing 40% of the costs (trying clawing it back sparked revolution).
The subsidy and arming of allies is Anglo then American policy for centuries, see also Lend Lease.
Super good analysis
So is there any chance for Russia to achieve the minimum standards for a victory? The Russian budget looks very bad. Jacob Dreizin says they have at most until mid-2026 to win and end the war. But Europe, meantime, has just to keep the Ukraine floating until Russia wears down. So how on earth can Russia win? Even if they take some more territory, the 'root causes' and security issues will never be solved in its favor without a regime change (which looks impossible).
Year 2025 deficit estimates: Russian gov 2.6% GDP deficit during wartime (ie they're absorbing physical attacks on territory multiple times a week) ; US gov 6% GDP during peacetime. EU: 3.3% also during peacetime. By that measure Russia is experiencing less pressure than their adversaries in peacetime!
That's only if you trust those numbers. From what I understand calculating the deficit can be misleading, but I have to re-read Dreizin to bring more details.
GDP figures are inherently mushy, but the general situation is that Russian finances were very conservatively managed going into this conflict, both in absolute and relative terms, and both in terms of balance sheet (debt/assets) and flows (spending/income). The impact of sanctions was actually to reduce the money sent to Europe, with the reductions most significant in goods used by the wealthy which weren't absolutely necessary. Whereas industrial goods that are necessary were simply rotated to China, which also adds a cost savings. This freed up internal finances for an enormous ramp-up of domestic investment, which could never be justified if it were not for the sanctions regime. The most optimistic thing Russia's detractors could say is that there is now fairly high inflation and interest rates - high enough that a country with the US's debt load couldn't sustain it at all. In Russia's case, it can be sustained perhaps not indefinitely, but anyone who tells there is a financial limits in 2026 or 27 or 28 is selling you a pile of cope.
The Russians have various financial channels available via China and futures contracts on oil/gas/extractables that Russia can promise China.
Particularly things like Lithium since Russia has taken over most of the Lithium mines that the neoliberals dreamed of cashing out on when they engineered the 2014 Maidan coup.
Ukraine isn't floating, by the way. Ukraine is a hollowed out shell of an economy that exists purely on EU/U.S. dollars. When the war is over no one is going to be buying their products. The EU militaries won't be buying Ukrainian drones cobbled together from Chinese electronics, motors, and 3D-printed bodies.
the author's last article claims that Ukraine is meant to be a weapons manufacturer after the war due to very cheap labor and no regulations. But unless Russia completely destroys Ukraine, which seems impossible, it will be floating. At least, enough to serve as a poor shithole proxy.
Maybe so, but how many drones is Europe going to buy before they’re stocked up?
They’ll be giving Ukraine money to import drone components from China and slap them into 3D printed bodies.
"The EU is still importing the majority of its military products, heavily benefiting the US and non-EU states like Turkey" - this is ultimately the reason the US pressured EU to rotate its future government spending power so heavily into defense. The actual impact to EU defense firms are essentially kickbacks for the Atlanticist milieu. Big ticket items like aerospace will be US based.
Already the war already sent the generation of military hardware of late 20th-century vintage into retirement by obsolescence or often physical destruction.
The effect on budget balance also locks in future austerity, ie under investment in people and infrastructure.
The ratios of job creation described are especially enlightening.
Europe is allin because of future benefits of breaking up russia
Couple points
1. Western Europe’s military spending and planned military spending is still below what they spent during the Cold War as percent of GDP
2. The current war is imposing significant costs on Western Europe …especially with energy…they will benefit when a peace arrives
There are two major differences to keep in mind with regard to European defense spending during the Cold War vs now:
1. NATO member states tended to have lower deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios
2. It was a period of unprecedented economic growth. Some states peaked at 6% annual growth rates. In comparison, German growth today is essentially zero.
As far as energy goes, we'll have to see. My expectation is that the severing of Europe from Russian energy exports is permanent, and only a wave of total defeats of the current ruling parties across the EU would have any chance of changing that.
Millions of indians aren't coming to ukraine. I don't know where you picked it,it is disinfo.
I didn't say they "were coming," I said it's a potential plan. It's been discussed for several years by multiple officials, including Ukrainian ones. https://www.unian.net/economics/other/kazhdyy-god-u-nas-ischezaet-naselenie-takogo-goroda-kak-zhitomir-ekspert-vasiliy-voskoboynik-12905919.html
Also European nation GDP's in those days weren't yet fluffed up with the nigh-imaginary financial services component.
The problem for them is that by the time they ramp up production, Russia will likely have the parts of Ukraine it actually wants, and will be amenable to a ceasefire to prevent it from invading the low-value parts of Ukraine it would love to stick the EU with rebuilding.
Because Eurocuck politicians are retarded and fundamentally out of touch with the voters.
“Because of this, it’s highly unlikely that the EU will tolerate an early conclusion to the war in Ukraine. “
Nonsense Author.
Poland is next.
And Poland probably knows it.
The Russians would love to stop at the Dnipro and will discover- or anticipate already- they won’t even be allowed to stop at the Bug.
What will be interesting is how much of the weapons make it to Ukraine, as Ukraine may settle or collapse. Ukraine has only settlement as a “win” now.
The rearmament of Europe is necessary in any case and always was, this is an awkward and brutal way to go about it.
In a good outcome they’ll be peace but Europe will be able to stand on its own on the other side of this, allowing America to disengage to a degree- which we are doing anyway- and a newly strong Europe can make better arrangements on its own for trade and their own economy.
The Green fever and the Bund Boomer model of comfortable decline will collapse in any case, hopefully not taking Europe with them.
I'm not sure this can be counted as the rearmament of Europe, given the kind of systems being launder...manufactured.
I’m not sure either.
This could improve their situation. Could.
If the British are defied “Then they shall knock on every door, purse in Hand.” - Frederick The Great. Prussian King during the Seven Years War, for which he received enormous British Subsidies. As did the Colonial Militias in America, subsidizing 40% of the costs (trying clawing it back sparked revolution).
The subsidy and arming of allies is Anglo then American policy for centuries, see also Lend Lease.
Apparently now… Rammstein, call your office…