Why would Iran sink billions of dollars into an ASBM program when they can just launch 50-100 Shaheds at one ship, at the same time?you would only need like 10% penetration to take the ship out of commission.
Do the challenges of interceptor missiles transfer to AshMs? An interceptor must also 1) be high speed 2) have guidance 3) hit a very fast moving target. By that logic you'd think any nation that can produce interceptor systems can also manage the kill chain on ships
Given that the Iranians have a very poor record of shooting down incoming missiles (do they even try?) and don't have a domestic industry for MANPADS or interceptors other than that S-300 variant, which was easy for the US to destroy, it may explain why their AshM tech just isn't a thing
My guess is their doctrine would be to 1) drone swarm, which would occupy defenses and identify the CSG 2) speedboat swarm, which brings the fight to close range and 3) overwhelm with very short range missiles with simple guidance. The problem with this doctrine is drones are slow and trivially easy to shoot down over the water, so you'd need a LOT of them, and the speedboats would be a single use strategy because most, if not all, would not survive the encounter. And carriers are FAST, so this whole approach only works as an ambush strategy.
What about supersonic cruise missiles? I’m a bit lacking in Cruise missile know how but when I hear about CMs it’s always subsonic ones or things like HGVs. Afaik there doesn’t seem to be much talk about CMs that could travel maybe in the Mach 1.5 range is it because the increase in speed isnt enough to justify the extra cost, engineering, and loss of mobility to make it go that fast?
I guess im curious about the minimum speed a cruise missile would need to stand a reasonable chance of being able to overwhelm or bypass CSG defenses?
Also imo as someone who has also at times wondered why they haven’t made a more concerted effort to sink a USN ship, i agree with the idea that they dont see the associated escalation as worth it + the CSG staying just beyond the range of most of their ASM makes it unrealistic as a legit target especially given how much more well defended a carrier is relative to even the most well defended bases.
Why would Iran sink billions of dollars into an ASBM program when they can just launch 50-100 Shaheds at one ship, at the same time?you would only need like 10% penetration to take the ship out of commission.
Do the challenges of interceptor missiles transfer to AshMs? An interceptor must also 1) be high speed 2) have guidance 3) hit a very fast moving target. By that logic you'd think any nation that can produce interceptor systems can also manage the kill chain on ships
Given that the Iranians have a very poor record of shooting down incoming missiles (do they even try?) and don't have a domestic industry for MANPADS or interceptors other than that S-300 variant, which was easy for the US to destroy, it may explain why their AshM tech just isn't a thing
My guess is their doctrine would be to 1) drone swarm, which would occupy defenses and identify the CSG 2) speedboat swarm, which brings the fight to close range and 3) overwhelm with very short range missiles with simple guidance. The problem with this doctrine is drones are slow and trivially easy to shoot down over the water, so you'd need a LOT of them, and the speedboats would be a single use strategy because most, if not all, would not survive the encounter. And carriers are FAST, so this whole approach only works as an ambush strategy.
Any way to get some actors onto that coast of Oman?
What about supersonic cruise missiles? I’m a bit lacking in Cruise missile know how but when I hear about CMs it’s always subsonic ones or things like HGVs. Afaik there doesn’t seem to be much talk about CMs that could travel maybe in the Mach 1.5 range is it because the increase in speed isnt enough to justify the extra cost, engineering, and loss of mobility to make it go that fast?
I guess im curious about the minimum speed a cruise missile would need to stand a reasonable chance of being able to overwhelm or bypass CSG defenses?
Also imo as someone who has also at times wondered why they haven’t made a more concerted effort to sink a USN ship, i agree with the idea that they dont see the associated escalation as worth it + the CSG staying just beyond the range of most of their ASM makes it unrealistic as a legit target especially given how much more well defended a carrier is relative to even the most well defended bases.
https://news.usni.org/2026/07/31/chinese-navy-showcases-hypersonic-anti-ship-capability-aboard-destroyers