Russian attritional warfare not only attrites men (Ukrainian), materiality (NATO's and the West in general) and will (both Ukraine's and the West), but also the building blocks of all these things - being money. The idea of attrition is that it builds pressure until the enemy implodes or becomes dysfunctional. The financing of Ukraine debate in the EU shows it is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.
Incredible breakdown of how the reparations loan collapsed under its own contradictions. The part about France quietly torpedoing the Belgian bailout is huge but kinda buried in all the technical details. What I found most striking is the debt-to-GDP math showing Ukraine at 155%, which puts them in Greece 2015 territory except Greece had functioning tax revenue and wasn't actively fighting a war. The €90 billion being half of previous aid levels while costs escalate seems like they're just delaying the inevitable reconing.
"Last month, the Economist calculated the Ukrainians would need a staggering $389 billion (€332B) in external financing over the next four years. The reality is that the Ukrainians need both massive loans from the EU and the Russian assets. Without the latter, they’ll have no choice but to make cuts."
Keep in mind that Ukrainian skim, waste and corruption mean that there is a lot of fat that can be cut out.
No offense, but saying that “there is a lot of fat that could be cut, if Ukraine wasn’t so corrupt”is like lamenting that “If only lions were vegetarian, I could have one as a pet!”
It’s not just the current leadership that is corrupt. It is the entire bureaucracy and middle stand. We’re talking about a country that for decades have been taught that “if I don’t steal, someone else will!”
When people say there is fat to be cut, it's true, as it's a version of Adam Smiths "there's a great deal of ruin" in a country. Ukraine can fight on so long as the administration has the will, and is ruthless enough to self-cannibalize some of it's so far immune factions. The elite circle will get smaller, those on the edges proscribed or thrown to the dogs (nabu, etc.) or mobilized to the front. The Nazis did not collapse from revolt, though it was close. If the ideology holds, they'll have to be rooted out from their bunkers like Mariupol. My prediction is that the Ukrainian nationalists, being core Slavs, aren't going to give up no matter how little money they receive. It'll come down to the last bullet they can scrounge out of the basement of the local elementary school.
When Adam Smith (or whoever) said that there was a lot of ruin in a country, he wasn't talking about an existential land war against russia.
Ukraine has had some variety of autonomy since 1920, and it's sovereign existence dates to 1993. For 30 years it has been a wasteful, corrupt disaster. There is a lot of ruin in a country, and ukraine has experienced a lot of ruin. And it wasn't working with that much country to begin with. It never built anything up, except for exporting is women as mail-order brides or worse.
No surprises here. The amount is enough to prevent Kiev's financial collapse, ie keep making interest payments and provide a minimum take for the local thugs, for a couple of years. There is no requirement in practice to repay principal.
Once again that same money could've been invested in Europe - be it for energy infrastructure, human capital, or simply kept in savings as a buffer for future events. But instead the atmosphere of crisis in EU continues, and the more ambitious Eurocrats probably it it as an opportunity. Perhaps history will remember them as clever strategists who purposely dragged out the emergency of their own creation (together with US ofc) to consolidate power for a bright and shining EU government - rather than assholes who wasted their people's wealth propping up Nazi revanchists and slaughtering a million Ukrainians in the process.
Russian attritional warfare not only attrites men (Ukrainian), materiality (NATO's and the West in general) and will (both Ukraine's and the West), but also the building blocks of all these things - being money. The idea of attrition is that it builds pressure until the enemy implodes or becomes dysfunctional. The financing of Ukraine debate in the EU shows it is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.
Incredible breakdown of how the reparations loan collapsed under its own contradictions. The part about France quietly torpedoing the Belgian bailout is huge but kinda buried in all the technical details. What I found most striking is the debt-to-GDP math showing Ukraine at 155%, which puts them in Greece 2015 territory except Greece had functioning tax revenue and wasn't actively fighting a war. The €90 billion being half of previous aid levels while costs escalate seems like they're just delaying the inevitable reconing.
"Last month, the Economist calculated the Ukrainians would need a staggering $389 billion (€332B) in external financing over the next four years. The reality is that the Ukrainians need both massive loans from the EU and the Russian assets. Without the latter, they’ll have no choice but to make cuts."
Keep in mind that Ukrainian skim, waste and corruption mean that there is a lot of fat that can be cut out.
No offense, but saying that “there is a lot of fat that could be cut, if Ukraine wasn’t so corrupt”is like lamenting that “If only lions were vegetarian, I could have one as a pet!”
It’s not just the current leadership that is corrupt. It is the entire bureaucracy and middle stand. We’re talking about a country that for decades have been taught that “if I don’t steal, someone else will!”
True, easier said than done.
When people say there is fat to be cut, it's true, as it's a version of Adam Smiths "there's a great deal of ruin" in a country. Ukraine can fight on so long as the administration has the will, and is ruthless enough to self-cannibalize some of it's so far immune factions. The elite circle will get smaller, those on the edges proscribed or thrown to the dogs (nabu, etc.) or mobilized to the front. The Nazis did not collapse from revolt, though it was close. If the ideology holds, they'll have to be rooted out from their bunkers like Mariupol. My prediction is that the Ukrainian nationalists, being core Slavs, aren't going to give up no matter how little money they receive. It'll come down to the last bullet they can scrounge out of the basement of the local elementary school.
When Adam Smith (or whoever) said that there was a lot of ruin in a country, he wasn't talking about an existential land war against russia.
Ukraine has had some variety of autonomy since 1920, and it's sovereign existence dates to 1993. For 30 years it has been a wasteful, corrupt disaster. There is a lot of ruin in a country, and ukraine has experienced a lot of ruin. And it wasn't working with that much country to begin with. It never built anything up, except for exporting is women as mail-order brides or worse.
"there is a lot of fat that can be cut"
But it won't be. Cutting the fat would mean cutting the kickbacks on the fat.
Give it a bit. We go through these pratfalls at every escalation.
No surprises here. The amount is enough to prevent Kiev's financial collapse, ie keep making interest payments and provide a minimum take for the local thugs, for a couple of years. There is no requirement in practice to repay principal.
Once again that same money could've been invested in Europe - be it for energy infrastructure, human capital, or simply kept in savings as a buffer for future events. But instead the atmosphere of crisis in EU continues, and the more ambitious Eurocrats probably it it as an opportunity. Perhaps history will remember them as clever strategists who purposely dragged out the emergency of their own creation (together with US ofc) to consolidate power for a bright and shining EU government - rather than assholes who wasted their people's wealth propping up Nazi revanchists and slaughtering a million Ukrainians in the process.