Russian attritional warfare not only attrites men (Ukrainian), materiality (NATO's and the West in general) and will (both Ukraine's and the West), but also the building blocks of all these things - being money. The idea of attrition is that it builds pressure until the enemy implodes or becomes dysfunctional. The financing of Ukraine debate in the EU shows it is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.
"Last month, the Economist calculated the Ukrainians would need a staggering $389 billion (€332B) in external financing over the next four years. The reality is that the Ukrainians need both massive loans from the EU and the Russian assets. Without the latter, they’ll have no choice but to make cuts."
Keep in mind that Ukrainian skim, waste and corruption mean that there is a lot of fat that can be cut out.
No offense, but saying that “there is a lot of fat that could be cut, if Ukraine wasn’t so corrupt”is like lamenting that “If only lions were vegetarian, I could have one as a pet!”
It’s not just the current leadership that is corrupt. It is the entire bureaucracy and middle stand. We’re talking about a country that for decades have been taught that “if I don’t steal, someone else will!”
Incredible breakdown of how the reparations loan collapsed under its own contradictions. The part about France quietly torpedoing the Belgian bailout is huge but kinda buried in all the technical details. What I found most striking is the debt-to-GDP math showing Ukraine at 155%, which puts them in Greece 2015 territory except Greece had functioning tax revenue and wasn't actively fighting a war. The €90 billion being half of previous aid levels while costs escalate seems like they're just delaying the inevitable reconing.
Russian attritional warfare not only attrites men (Ukrainian), materiality (NATO's and the West in general) and will (both Ukraine's and the West), but also the building blocks of all these things - being money. The idea of attrition is that it builds pressure until the enemy implodes or becomes dysfunctional. The financing of Ukraine debate in the EU shows it is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.
"Last month, the Economist calculated the Ukrainians would need a staggering $389 billion (€332B) in external financing over the next four years. The reality is that the Ukrainians need both massive loans from the EU and the Russian assets. Without the latter, they’ll have no choice but to make cuts."
Keep in mind that Ukrainian skim, waste and corruption mean that there is a lot of fat that can be cut out.
No offense, but saying that “there is a lot of fat that could be cut, if Ukraine wasn’t so corrupt”is like lamenting that “If only lions were vegetarian, I could have one as a pet!”
It’s not just the current leadership that is corrupt. It is the entire bureaucracy and middle stand. We’re talking about a country that for decades have been taught that “if I don’t steal, someone else will!”
True, easier said than done.
"there is a lot of fat that can be cut"
But it won't be. Cutting the fat would mean cutting the kickbacks on the fat.
Give it a bit. We go through these pratfalls at every escalation.
Incredible breakdown of how the reparations loan collapsed under its own contradictions. The part about France quietly torpedoing the Belgian bailout is huge but kinda buried in all the technical details. What I found most striking is the debt-to-GDP math showing Ukraine at 155%, which puts them in Greece 2015 territory except Greece had functioning tax revenue and wasn't actively fighting a war. The €90 billion being half of previous aid levels while costs escalate seems like they're just delaying the inevitable reconing.