It's worth noting that Russia prefers to rotate troops, and the September mobilization would correspond with de-mobilization of the previous cohort, who have been active for quite some time.
There is undoubtedly a desire in the West to shift the equilibrium into which the conflict has fallen; either toward negotiation on their terms, or obvious retaliation that they can spin to their populace(s) as full war. Full war would mean narrative freedom to oppress opposition voices even more than presently, and help stabilize shaky regimes from populist forces. There is also a very strong element of the persistent Russophobia of now centuries vintage, however "Russia is never as weak as imagined, nor as strong as it is supposed."
From where I am sitting, there appears to be no clear objective from the russian side, tactically speaking. Why the Ukrainians have been allowed more or less free logistics for the last 5 years - with fuel interdiction only beginning now - is a mystery. The means of production are west of Ukraine, an unsolved (but not unsolvable) problem. Even the energy infrastructure campaign produced unconvincing results.
Meanwhile, western interceptor production and technical efficacy continues to improve. More drones are arriving. More money is flowing. Back in 2024 when Avdiivka fell and the russian advance was in full swing if you told me that ukraine would be launching effectice counter attacks and clearing dozens of sqkm of territory on a weekly basis id have said you were delusional. Silly me!
This article unfortunately comes as wishful thinking without much evidence to back them up. The most reliable mapper of the war, AMK, routinely showed both russian advances and ukrainian counterattacks. To describe Ukrainian counter attacks as unsuccessful is to deny the situation before them. Orikhiv, the last major stronghold city in the south was looking like it was about to get pincered and overcome. Even worse, the Russians were seemingly about to reach Zaporizhia. Then the counterattack effectively removed months of progress in both the west and especially the east (The Dnieper border is basically at the place it was for years).
Not to mention Kupiansk were an overly bold russian push across the river on the west was effectively smashed with a small holdout left.
Currently Ukraine is doing somewhat successful counter attacks in Lyman and near vovchansk. That does not mean that Russians are incapable of success as the Kostantinivka captured showed, but it requires honesty to admit the truth. For a while Ukrainians have been considered completely unreliable, but when it comes to Russians unsuccesses, Pro-Russian analysts have also fallen into dreams.
I have been burned by the Karabach war and the recent Syrian debacle to allow myself to trust our guys to win always.
● Zelensky's former Commander in Chief, General Valerii Zaluzhny, referred to him as "Small Mossad agent". The speed with which he is burning through lives suggests there might be some truth to Vladimir Zhirinovsky's 2004 prediction that within 20 years Ukraine and Western Russia would be depopulated to make room for Israel 2.0...;
A refreshingly balanced essay. To give some additional perspective on what is happening here:-
● "When the Soviet Union was collapsing in late 1991, Dick [Cheney] wanted to see the dismantlement not only of the Soviet Union and the Russian empire but of Russia itself...” (Former US Defense Secretary, Robert M. Gates). This didn't happen, largely because of the risk of Russia's enormous nuclear arsenal falling into the wrong hands;
● The United States changed its Defense Planning Guidance to stress that America's "first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere..." (The "Wolfowitz Doctrine");
● To try and stop Russia rivalling the American hegemony, the Pentagon funded RAND Corporation published a report which recommended a number of countries which could be used / sacrificed to exhaust ("extend") Russia. Measure number 1 was: "Provide Lethal Aid to Ukraine";
● Around the time he was reneging on the Istanbul Communique, described by his own advisor as "the most profitable agreement we could have done", Vlodomir Zelensky said: "There are those in the West who don't mind a long war, because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and at the cost of Ukrainian lives" (Interview on 27th March 2022);
● Warmongering US Senator, Lindsay Graham (R - SC) said: "I like the path we are on here. As long as we help Ukraine with the weapons they need and economic support, they will fight to the last person" (May 2023); and
● Boris Johnson admitted what the proxy war is all about, when he said: "If Ukraine falls it will be a catastrophe for the West; IT WILL BE THE END OF THE WESTERN HEGEMONY...." (emphasis added)
To summarise, Vlodomir Zelensky promised Boris Johnson he would fight "to the last Ukrainian" to weaken Russia and help the West maintain its global hegemony. Unfortunately for the people of Ukraine, this seems to be the one promise he is willing to keep...
As a final point, Zelensky's former Commander in Chief, General Valerii Zaluzhny, referred to him as the "Small Mossad agent". The speed with which he is burning through lives suggests there might be some truth to Vladimir Zhirinovsky's 2004 prediction that within 20 years Ukraine and Western Russia would be depopulated to make room for Israel 2.0...
A Ukrainian Telegram account complained: "The war is terrible, honestly.. I really want to believe that Zelensky is just being deceived. Otherwise, IF HE IS REALLY AWARE OF THE STATE OF AFFAIRS AT THE FRONT, I CANNOT CALL IT ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE EXTERMINATION OF HIS OWN PEOPLE." (emphasis added)
And here is Ukraine’s own Rada MP, Ilya Kiva claiming that Israel will be recreated in those parts of western Ukraine which have been emptied by Zelensky's war...
As far as I can tell, the great majority of Americans have lost track of this war long ago - and it's pretty clear Trump admin remains under Netanyahu's thumb and it's just a matter of time before another round with Iran. It's the usual, giving Eurocrats who actually read this stuff just enough cover to send another check. Maybe they'll finally send back some of the military-age Ukrainian males in EU and shake down the rest for whatever savings they made since arriving.
It's worth noting that Russia prefers to rotate troops, and the September mobilization would correspond with de-mobilization of the previous cohort, who have been active for quite some time.
There is undoubtedly a desire in the West to shift the equilibrium into which the conflict has fallen; either toward negotiation on their terms, or obvious retaliation that they can spin to their populace(s) as full war. Full war would mean narrative freedom to oppress opposition voices even more than presently, and help stabilize shaky regimes from populist forces. There is also a very strong element of the persistent Russophobia of now centuries vintage, however "Russia is never as weak as imagined, nor as strong as it is supposed."
From where I am sitting, there appears to be no clear objective from the russian side, tactically speaking. Why the Ukrainians have been allowed more or less free logistics for the last 5 years - with fuel interdiction only beginning now - is a mystery. The means of production are west of Ukraine, an unsolved (but not unsolvable) problem. Even the energy infrastructure campaign produced unconvincing results.
Meanwhile, western interceptor production and technical efficacy continues to improve. More drones are arriving. More money is flowing. Back in 2024 when Avdiivka fell and the russian advance was in full swing if you told me that ukraine would be launching effectice counter attacks and clearing dozens of sqkm of territory on a weekly basis id have said you were delusional. Silly me!
This article unfortunately comes as wishful thinking without much evidence to back them up. The most reliable mapper of the war, AMK, routinely showed both russian advances and ukrainian counterattacks. To describe Ukrainian counter attacks as unsuccessful is to deny the situation before them. Orikhiv, the last major stronghold city in the south was looking like it was about to get pincered and overcome. Even worse, the Russians were seemingly about to reach Zaporizhia. Then the counterattack effectively removed months of progress in both the west and especially the east (The Dnieper border is basically at the place it was for years).
Not to mention Kupiansk were an overly bold russian push across the river on the west was effectively smashed with a small holdout left.
Currently Ukraine is doing somewhat successful counter attacks in Lyman and near vovchansk. That does not mean that Russians are incapable of success as the Kostantinivka captured showed, but it requires honesty to admit the truth. For a while Ukrainians have been considered completely unreliable, but when it comes to Russians unsuccesses, Pro-Russian analysts have also fallen into dreams.
I have been burned by the Karabach war and the recent Syrian debacle to allow myself to trust our guys to win always.
● Zelensky's former Commander in Chief, General Valerii Zaluzhny, referred to him as "Small Mossad agent". The speed with which he is burning through lives suggests there might be some truth to Vladimir Zhirinovsky's 2004 prediction that within 20 years Ukraine and Western Russia would be depopulated to make room for Israel 2.0...;
https://simplicius76.substack.com/api/v1/video/upload/0fb60ebb-c4b2-41fb-ad87-ab2f53c82bfd/src?override_publication_id=1351274&type=hls
A refreshingly balanced essay. To give some additional perspective on what is happening here:-
● "When the Soviet Union was collapsing in late 1991, Dick [Cheney] wanted to see the dismantlement not only of the Soviet Union and the Russian empire but of Russia itself...” (Former US Defense Secretary, Robert M. Gates). This didn't happen, largely because of the risk of Russia's enormous nuclear arsenal falling into the wrong hands;
● The United States changed its Defense Planning Guidance to stress that America's "first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere..." (The "Wolfowitz Doctrine");
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/08/world/us-strategy-plan-calls-for-insuring-no-rivals-develop.html
● To try and stop Russia rivalling the American hegemony, the Pentagon funded RAND Corporation published a report which recommended a number of countries which could be used / sacrificed to exhaust ("extend") Russia. Measure number 1 was: "Provide Lethal Aid to Ukraine";
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
● Around the time he was reneging on the Istanbul Communique, described by his own advisor as "the most profitable agreement we could have done", Vlodomir Zelensky said: "There are those in the West who don't mind a long war, because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and at the cost of Ukrainian lives" (Interview on 27th March 2022);
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-neutral-status-russia-peace-agreement-volodymyr-zelenskyy/
● Warmongering US Senator, Lindsay Graham (R - SC) said: "I like the path we are on here. As long as we help Ukraine with the weapons they need and economic support, they will fight to the last person" (May 2023); and
https://national-conservative.com/lindsey-graham-says-he-will-continue-sending-weapons-as-long-as-ukraine-will-fight-to-the-last-man/
● Boris Johnson admitted what the proxy war is all about, when he said: "If Ukraine falls it will be a catastrophe for the West; IT WILL BE THE END OF THE WESTERN HEGEMONY...." (emphasis added)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/api/v1/video/upload/1fbe1af0-6563-4e70-81a7-e4333c21a305/src?override_publication_id=1351274&type=hls
To summarise, Vlodomir Zelensky promised Boris Johnson he would fight "to the last Ukrainian" to weaken Russia and help the West maintain its global hegemony. Unfortunately for the people of Ukraine, this seems to be the one promise he is willing to keep...
As a final point, Zelensky's former Commander in Chief, General Valerii Zaluzhny, referred to him as the "Small Mossad agent". The speed with which he is burning through lives suggests there might be some truth to Vladimir Zhirinovsky's 2004 prediction that within 20 years Ukraine and Western Russia would be depopulated to make room for Israel 2.0...
https://simplicius76.substack.com/api/v1/video/upload/0fb60ebb-c4b2-41fb-ad87-ab2f53c82bfd/src?override_publication_id=1351274&type=hls
A Ukrainian Telegram account complained: "The war is terrible, honestly.. I really want to believe that Zelensky is just being deceived. Otherwise, IF HE IS REALLY AWARE OF THE STATE OF AFFAIRS AT THE FRONT, I CANNOT CALL IT ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE EXTERMINATION OF HIS OWN PEOPLE." (emphasis added)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/swell-of-wwiii-red-herrings-aims?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-a80fc0ab-aa92-4041-8100-b05f7b6e64b2
And here is Ukraine’s own Rada MP, Ilya Kiva claiming that Israel will be recreated in those parts of western Ukraine which have been emptied by Zelensky's war...
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-101823-israel-ukraine-war?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-874f2b51-4635-4714-a1ff-1c95bd6ca7c4
As far as I can tell, the great majority of Americans have lost track of this war long ago - and it's pretty clear Trump admin remains under Netanyahu's thumb and it's just a matter of time before another round with Iran. It's the usual, giving Eurocrats who actually read this stuff just enough cover to send another check. Maybe they'll finally send back some of the military-age Ukrainian males in EU and shake down the rest for whatever savings they made since arriving.