I've been dumping on MALEs for half a decade now, albeit not as thoroughly as you. However, I'd posit that the MQ-9, MQ-1, MQ-4, or any unmanned bomb truck being shot down, even en masse, isn't that big of a deal. Or at least it wouldn't be, if the Weimerican Empire's manufacturing capability was not so pathetic.
The US produced over 60,000 fighter aircraft during WW2, ramping up from next to nothing. In contrast, they've produced just over 300 MQ-1 Predators over thirty years. Pair that with less than 70 MQ-4's over a decade, and just over 500 MQ-9s over two. There is nothing inherent to unmanned aircraft that necessitate them being so absurdly overpriced, or so difficult to manufacture. In fact, they are easier to make, since you don't have to produce a cockpit, ejection seat, control panel, etcetera.
The MQ-1 costs $4 million, which sounds reasonable until you realize that it's a piston prop with a 115hp engine (a Rotax 914 that retails for $40k) and a maximum takeoff weight of less than 2,500 lbs. Meanwhile, larger civilian aircraft with bigger engines retail for less than an order of magnitude the cost, despite civilian aircraft being a niche industry with almost no economies of scale.
The MQ-9 is even more ridiculous. Sure, it's larger, and has a ~900hp turboprop ($~300k). We are still talking about a simple aircraft without a cockpit and a max takeoff weight of 10k lbs. It is preposterous that this thing costs $30 million, and don't even get me started about the $240 million MQ-4's.
The MQ-1s could be mass produced for less than $100k per airframe. Were they that cheap, and produced in the thousands, it would not be that big of a deal if they only averaged ~10 sorties before being shot down. After all, the missiles they launch cost about that much, and they are by definition single use. Pricing in a $10k amortization cost on a mission wherein $2 million worth of missiles was launched is just not that big of a deal.
This may be a decaying and absurd country, but it is still the world's richest. That they can't mass produce their own weapons of war is such an astonishing failure that, even though I am cheering against them, it still somehow makes me angry, and somewhat baffled.
I believe the count on Reapers lost 28FEB26 to 15JUL26 is about 31. That includes those destroyed on the ground in theater. Really tough to get ANY accurate info in this war so take that with a grain of salt
The severe Reaper losses are a result of operational choices. The US has accepted high drone attrition to avoid pilot casualties and to maintain persistent ISR in denied airspace. The Reaper is doing the job it was asked to do, and the job is killing it. I wouldn't call it genocide, but the predictable consequence of using a counterinsurgency platform in a major war.
“The Iranians have claimed dozens of Reapers, and while the exact total is unknown, CENTCOM has certainly lost more MQ-9s in five months of war with Iran than it had in the entirety of the platform’s operational life preceding it. The opening 40-day phase saw so many losses (over $1 billion worth) it sent the Pentagon scrambling to find a solution. Demands have been made to restart the MQ-9A production lines. Reapers sold to allies may be bought back. There are as few as ten unsold Reapers worldwide, and the USAF plans to buy all of them.
A Congressional hearing in May revealed the remaining fleet stood at 135 airframes, a precipitous decline from the 165 available in October 2025 and 231 in October 2024. Dozens of units may have been lost since then, if Iranian claims are to be believed.“
I wonder if a secondary motivation for using the Reaper in a role that will result in losses is to force Congress to allocate funds for something better.
They have been working on the solution and you can see it on the highways of Novorossiya -- cheap one-way drones combined with AI targeting and Starlink real-time guidance.
I am surprised we haven't seen those deployed to Iran yet. In fact, I imagined the restart of the war would happen when they had that solution worked sufficiently well and deployed
Iran is enormous and the "battlefield" within it, if you can call it that, is incredibly sparse. There isn't an army of hundreds of thousands along a front line that needs constant deliveries of fuel and ammunition. It isn't reasonable to expect a one way attack drone with low endurance to simply cruise over Iran and find a valuable target to hit. The two situations are very different. I may write a piece about this soon because it's an interesting subject.
Satellites would be doing most of the finding, the point of drones is to be in the general vicinity for a quick strike on missile launch TELs, radars, mobile AD, etc.
And if they don't find anything and are close to their endurance limit, they just do some terror bombing.
Thus them being cheap being so important.
Iran is big, but not that big to not have some serious issues once that sort of thing is implemented, and only the area around Mashhad will be somewhat safe.
What a coherent writer you are. Lovely read, highly enjoyable. Thank you!
You missed a golden chance to use "Hostage to Fortune". Otherwise 10/10.
10/10 title though.
No Country for Old MALEs
I've been dumping on MALEs for half a decade now, albeit not as thoroughly as you. However, I'd posit that the MQ-9, MQ-1, MQ-4, or any unmanned bomb truck being shot down, even en masse, isn't that big of a deal. Or at least it wouldn't be, if the Weimerican Empire's manufacturing capability was not so pathetic.
The US produced over 60,000 fighter aircraft during WW2, ramping up from next to nothing. In contrast, they've produced just over 300 MQ-1 Predators over thirty years. Pair that with less than 70 MQ-4's over a decade, and just over 500 MQ-9s over two. There is nothing inherent to unmanned aircraft that necessitate them being so absurdly overpriced, or so difficult to manufacture. In fact, they are easier to make, since you don't have to produce a cockpit, ejection seat, control panel, etcetera.
The MQ-1 costs $4 million, which sounds reasonable until you realize that it's a piston prop with a 115hp engine (a Rotax 914 that retails for $40k) and a maximum takeoff weight of less than 2,500 lbs. Meanwhile, larger civilian aircraft with bigger engines retail for less than an order of magnitude the cost, despite civilian aircraft being a niche industry with almost no economies of scale.
The MQ-9 is even more ridiculous. Sure, it's larger, and has a ~900hp turboprop ($~300k). We are still talking about a simple aircraft without a cockpit and a max takeoff weight of 10k lbs. It is preposterous that this thing costs $30 million, and don't even get me started about the $240 million MQ-4's.
The MQ-1s could be mass produced for less than $100k per airframe. Were they that cheap, and produced in the thousands, it would not be that big of a deal if they only averaged ~10 sorties before being shot down. After all, the missiles they launch cost about that much, and they are by definition single use. Pricing in a $10k amortization cost on a mission wherein $2 million worth of missiles was launched is just not that big of a deal.
This may be a decaying and absurd country, but it is still the world's richest. That they can't mass produce their own weapons of war is such an astonishing failure that, even though I am cheering against them, it still somehow makes me angry, and somewhat baffled.
I believe the count on Reapers lost 28FEB26 to 15JUL26 is about 31. That includes those destroyed on the ground in theater. Really tough to get ANY accurate info in this war so take that with a grain of salt
The severe Reaper losses are a result of operational choices. The US has accepted high drone attrition to avoid pilot casualties and to maintain persistent ISR in denied airspace. The Reaper is doing the job it was asked to do, and the job is killing it. I wouldn't call it genocide, but the predictable consequence of using a counterinsurgency platform in a major war.
Astounding:
“The Iranians have claimed dozens of Reapers, and while the exact total is unknown, CENTCOM has certainly lost more MQ-9s in five months of war with Iran than it had in the entirety of the platform’s operational life preceding it. The opening 40-day phase saw so many losses (over $1 billion worth) it sent the Pentagon scrambling to find a solution. Demands have been made to restart the MQ-9A production lines. Reapers sold to allies may be bought back. There are as few as ten unsold Reapers worldwide, and the USAF plans to buy all of them.
A Congressional hearing in May revealed the remaining fleet stood at 135 airframes, a precipitous decline from the 165 available in October 2025 and 231 in October 2024. Dozens of units may have been lost since then, if Iranian claims are to be believed.“
Maybe Ukraine has the cards and could help if asked?
I wonder if a secondary motivation for using the Reaper in a role that will result in losses is to force Congress to allocate funds for something better.
They have been working on the solution and you can see it on the highways of Novorossiya -- cheap one-way drones combined with AI targeting and Starlink real-time guidance.
I am surprised we haven't seen those deployed to Iran yet. In fact, I imagined the restart of the war would happen when they had that solution worked sufficiently well and deployed
Iran is enormous and the "battlefield" within it, if you can call it that, is incredibly sparse. There isn't an army of hundreds of thousands along a front line that needs constant deliveries of fuel and ammunition. It isn't reasonable to expect a one way attack drone with low endurance to simply cruise over Iran and find a valuable target to hit. The two situations are very different. I may write a piece about this soon because it's an interesting subject.
Satellites would be doing most of the finding, the point of drones is to be in the general vicinity for a quick strike on missile launch TELs, radars, mobile AD, etc.
And if they don't find anything and are close to their endurance limit, they just do some terror bombing.
Thus them being cheap being so important.
Iran is big, but not that big to not have some serious issues once that sort of thing is implemented, and only the area around Mashhad will be somewhat safe.
Perhaps this solution you speak of, like everything else that comes out of the Ukraine, is massively over hyped bullshit propaganda.