Great article. I have been following you on x since the beginning of the war and have really enjoyed your analysis as someone who knows very little about combat. Looking forward to more.
Iran still have the 400 kg of HEU. The person who fought against nuclear bomb the most, Seyyed Ali Khamenei, have been martyred. The US tried seize/destroy the 400 kg uranium using special forces at 3rd April under the guise of rescuing the stranded F-15 pilot, but failed. Now, they can only guess whether or not Iran is a nuclear power. Maybe it's enough to act as deterrence? 🤷
Great post, and you especially nailed it at the end. This is the worst defeat in US history, by a country mile. We've never, ever seen us lose like this before.
Iran probably wants to force US to move the high value assets to Ben Gurion. We may see a repeat of the Japanese attack on Hickam Field where the aircraft were conveniently parked wingtip to wingtip.
this is what I call good analysis and it echoes what I've been saying for some time over on Simplicicus substack comments
add to this that the TELLTALE signs of munitions depletion will be 1) the disuse of long range strategic bomber assets (JASSM-ERs are gone). 2) the use of shorter range tactical aircraft with improved survivability using short range systems like JDAM-ERs and ordinary JASSMs. This (2) requires MASSIVE tanker support. Also the LO airframes are very maintenance intensive and will be flying quite long missions, well outside of their intended range envelopes.
It's exactly what we're seeing and what I literally predicted weeks ago. It's precisely WHY so many tanker assets are in theater now. The US is out of LR PGMs for its bomber fleet and is relegated to using tactical aviation from distant airfields with tanker support. The logistics tail is sitting out in the open waiting to be cut off. When it is, poof, there goes US force projection anywhere on the globe.
Until and unless true SEAD happens and the JUSA acquires air supremacy, you will not see strategic bomber assets operating over deep Iran proper. And this suppression won't occur bc Iran is using the Ukrainiac tactic of sporadic radar emissions to get a picture and then relay of that picture to passive IR systems mobile and distributed throughout Iran. These tactics are VERY effective at attriting the only airframes operating over Iran proper- MQ9s.
"Why hasn't the US blanketed Iran in medium range drones?"
Because they don't have them, won't be getting them any time soon and would still have to come into range of Iranian systems to launch them.
For American industry to shift from making a small number of expensive high end weapon systems like the F-35s to making huge amounts of low cost weapon systems like the Shaheed drones, (plus still making all the F-35s) would be a huge undertaking. It would be like one of those niche Italian sports cars companies shifting from making a few hundred luxury supercars a year to a Chinese factory making hundreds of thousands of e-bikes.
Everything would have to change and it would take years, decades, even a full generation.
For example, and here's just one point, you'd have to go to the universities to re-organize the professors to train enough engineers to be the technical managers and supervisors for the guys who are going to be building all the new factories to even make the stuff before anything actually gets to the battlefield.
We're seeing Iran hit targets today with the products of work started 30+ years ago.
Well how much has Anduril actually delivered to the battlefield?
I don’t know much about Palmer Luckey, but what I have seen of him gives me the impression that his main skill is talking a good game to attract funding, which is a very important skill for a silicon valley type guy to have.
What Ukraine has managed to produce has been the result of 4 and a half years of near total war over all their whole territory and the mobilization of nearly their entire population and productive capacity, plus massive assistance from Europe and the USA. Ironically a lot of crucial components for those weapons are still made in China!
The war in Ukraine has developed the technology and the motivation to create these weapons but it hasn’t expanded the capacity available to make weapons to hit Iran because it’s going to make weapons to hit Russia.
But you’re mainly right, the American Military Industrial is still stuck in 2003 and it will take a lot to turn that ocean liner around. There’s going to be a lot more need for guys in pick up trucks, guys with robots and robot pick up trucks than high end systems like F-35s and carrier battle groups in the future.
Anduril is co-opted and a part of the good-ole-boy MIC club just like the rest of them. Once Luckey got a taste of that corrupting Pentagon cash he realized where his real interests lie.
I don't understand two aspects of this conflict. The first is how we could have unprotected assets in the Middle East when Iran was stockpiling drones and missiles. The second is how the building or launchers aren't destroyed after the fire ONE. We must have satellite imagery and surveillance aircraft.
They weren't unprotected. They were protected by air defense systems that sucked 35 years ago (Patriots, Desert Storm), when it didn't actually matter, and whose follow-on versions still suck today, when it now does matter. Plus they're so overpriced that there's 30x less ammo for it than would be required to actually defend anything for real, even if they had a decent hit rate.
Great article. I have been following you on x since the beginning of the war and have really enjoyed your analysis as someone who knows very little about combat. Looking forward to more.
Great news. Hopefully Iran has gamed out the very likely scenario of a nuke attack by the Zionists, and has a war ending counter strike.
Iran still have the 400 kg of HEU. The person who fought against nuclear bomb the most, Seyyed Ali Khamenei, have been martyred. The US tried seize/destroy the 400 kg uranium using special forces at 3rd April under the guise of rescuing the stranded F-15 pilot, but failed. Now, they can only guess whether or not Iran is a nuclear power. Maybe it's enough to act as deterrence? 🤷
Not that I'm an expert in military science :D
You hear rumors that they already have one. Time will tell.
Great post, and you especially nailed it at the end. This is the worst defeat in US history, by a country mile. We've never, ever seen us lose like this before.
Iran probably wants to force US to move the high value assets to Ben Gurion. We may see a repeat of the Japanese attack on Hickam Field where the aircraft were conveniently parked wingtip to wingtip.
this is what I call good analysis and it echoes what I've been saying for some time over on Simplicicus substack comments
add to this that the TELLTALE signs of munitions depletion will be 1) the disuse of long range strategic bomber assets (JASSM-ERs are gone). 2) the use of shorter range tactical aircraft with improved survivability using short range systems like JDAM-ERs and ordinary JASSMs. This (2) requires MASSIVE tanker support. Also the LO airframes are very maintenance intensive and will be flying quite long missions, well outside of their intended range envelopes.
It's exactly what we're seeing and what I literally predicted weeks ago. It's precisely WHY so many tanker assets are in theater now. The US is out of LR PGMs for its bomber fleet and is relegated to using tactical aviation from distant airfields with tanker support. The logistics tail is sitting out in the open waiting to be cut off. When it is, poof, there goes US force projection anywhere on the globe.
Until and unless true SEAD happens and the JUSA acquires air supremacy, you will not see strategic bomber assets operating over deep Iran proper. And this suppression won't occur bc Iran is using the Ukrainiac tactic of sporadic radar emissions to get a picture and then relay of that picture to passive IR systems mobile and distributed throughout Iran. These tactics are VERY effective at attriting the only airframes operating over Iran proper- MQ9s.
Great Report!
Might Cyprus be the next fall back position?
Why hasn't the US blanketed Iran in medium range drones, like the russia Ukraine war?
What is the likelihood of a ground op at this stage?
Casualties i think have dual effects - trump will get blamed but it will harden resolve. Maybe
"Why hasn't the US blanketed Iran in medium range drones?"
Because they don't have them, won't be getting them any time soon and would still have to come into range of Iranian systems to launch them.
For American industry to shift from making a small number of expensive high end weapon systems like the F-35s to making huge amounts of low cost weapon systems like the Shaheed drones, (plus still making all the F-35s) would be a huge undertaking. It would be like one of those niche Italian sports cars companies shifting from making a few hundred luxury supercars a year to a Chinese factory making hundreds of thousands of e-bikes.
Everything would have to change and it would take years, decades, even a full generation.
For example, and here's just one point, you'd have to go to the universities to re-organize the professors to train enough engineers to be the technical managers and supervisors for the guys who are going to be building all the new factories to even make the stuff before anything actually gets to the battlefield.
We're seeing Iran hit targets today with the products of work started 30+ years ago.
Isn't that Anduril (and others) entire biz though?
And if the US can't do it, how can Ukraine do it while under constant Russian strategic fire?
Just from my POV, the US is still fighting a 2003 style war.
Well how much has Anduril actually delivered to the battlefield?
I don’t know much about Palmer Luckey, but what I have seen of him gives me the impression that his main skill is talking a good game to attract funding, which is a very important skill for a silicon valley type guy to have.
What Ukraine has managed to produce has been the result of 4 and a half years of near total war over all their whole territory and the mobilization of nearly their entire population and productive capacity, plus massive assistance from Europe and the USA. Ironically a lot of crucial components for those weapons are still made in China!
The war in Ukraine has developed the technology and the motivation to create these weapons but it hasn’t expanded the capacity available to make weapons to hit Iran because it’s going to make weapons to hit Russia.
But you’re mainly right, the American Military Industrial is still stuck in 2003 and it will take a lot to turn that ocean liner around. There’s going to be a lot more need for guys in pick up trucks, guys with robots and robot pick up trucks than high end systems like F-35s and carrier battle groups in the future.
Anduril is co-opted and a part of the good-ole-boy MIC club just like the rest of them. Once Luckey got a taste of that corrupting Pentagon cash he realized where his real interests lie.
The caliphate must be destroyed.
I don't understand two aspects of this conflict. The first is how we could have unprotected assets in the Middle East when Iran was stockpiling drones and missiles. The second is how the building or launchers aren't destroyed after the fire ONE. We must have satellite imagery and surveillance aircraft.
They weren't unprotected. They were protected by air defense systems that sucked 35 years ago (Patriots, Desert Storm), when it didn't actually matter, and whose follow-on versions still suck today, when it now does matter. Plus they're so overpriced that there's 30x less ammo for it than would be required to actually defend anything for real, even if they had a decent hit rate.
Maybe watch less Hollywood movies and study what the advarsary is actually doing. This is true with most US generals and war planners.
Google 'Missile Cities': Iran has dozens of giant underground silos hidden and impervious to US attack.
Doesn't take a 1 year old to see that plane is a total!