This is another facit of Russia's War of Attrition. I have argued in the past that the Russians are attriting Ukrainian manpower, and Western materiality and will. This is clearly a case of an example of material attrition. The EU states are in desperate financial straits, and the frozen Russian assets are the only spare cash left, only there is a whole lot of fishhooks if this is used. In the end, no Western state will want to face the consequences if the money is stolen for use in Ukraine, but in the end Ukraine ceases to be a functional state at the end of the war, unable to repay any loan which EU countries will have to pay back to Russia plus penalties.
Russia is by no means attriting european will. In fact, the european elites are united as never before. Russian dithering and indecision has caused them to smell blood and they will be satisfied with nothing but blood.
To give one example, france is sending Ukraine another 100 or so aircraft. Now, everyone knows that Ukraine can never pay for these, but who cares? The aircraft will be delivered all the same.
Everyone knows that those aircraft will be flown and crewed by sheep-dipped NATO personnel, so, clearly, france is not terribly worried about Russian reaction.
I made no comment on Will, only on materiality. All I said was that Will was a target of attrition - think insurgent warfare as an example which is purely attritional ie Afghanistan. At some stage Ukraine will wear out European Will - perhaps with changes in the political governments, and/or because Europe finally figures out they cannot afford it. There is almost no will among the populations of Europe and it is only the elites that are pursuing this. Given democracy how long will that last given the dire economic straits the Europeans are finding themselves in..
Aircraft is not what Ukraine needs right now to prosecute the war and they will do little to affect the outcome. But lets take this 100 French aircraft as a thought experiment - lets say they really are produced and given to Ukraine. They have not been produced yet. According to sources France produces two Rafales per month, lets theoretically say that delivery starts in January 2026, and in 2027 they increase production to three making a total of 96 aircraft at the beginning of 2028, and a further four in 2028, making it 100 aircraft. If they go this route, it is weaponized Keynesianism, and the French Government is hoping the chief function is to create jobs and money.
Or they could denude the French Airforce, as the British and Danes have done with their artillery, by giving 100 planes from air units - a dangerous and impractical policy.
And these aircraft will take at least over a year, even if flown by foreign pilots already familiar with French Aircraft, to become effective and probably longer because you will need to put the infrastructure in place, train the ground crews to service the aircraft - and they will be Ukrainian, and all the other supporting installations that go with it. WILL THE WAR LAST THAT LONG - I doubt it will go beyond next year. And that is not even counting the Russian targeting of the airfields and training grounds which will significantly hamper deployment.
We've been hearing that Ukraine is collapsing for four years now, but it never seems to happen. The aircraft, BTW, will be taken from existing french inventories. They have plenty of reserve airframes. And yes, those ground crews, pilots, etc. will be sheep-dipped NATO personnel.
Anyway, the european plan, the only real plan, was ever always only the same - get the Americans to ride to their rescue again. Whether that takes place as directly or whether the Americans have to step in rather than leave their catamites hanging out to dry is of no consequence.
This plan is proceeding apace, aided by Russian dithering and Trump's imbecility. And no, democracy will not save us. The europeans have demonstrated that democracy is conditional, all to barely a peep of protest.
This, BTW, is the real genesis of the "european zero tariff trade deal". This token of european submission can be withdrawn at any time, should Trump not give the europeans the war they so crave.
The european rulers are paying no price at all, which is why their will for war remains unslaked.
Won't work. The French, as with most Western countries including the US, are casualty adverse. Sending French personnel will mean sending some home in body bags. The French population and even the political elites revolted the last time Macron even hinted at sending forces to Ukraine - look at earlier. Macron might propose as such but saying and doing are two different things. The French will not stand for it.
If they are pulling the aircraft from war stock then allow 6 months at least to bring them up to an operational standard. Also, you have not addressed the infrastructure question in Ukraine, liaison or all the other myriad control and coordination issues that need to be addressed - all while under Russian fire and interdiction.
As for four years of Ukraine is about to fall - where is the proof? Apart for the first few weeks of the war, the only talk in four continuous years in the West is that Russia and Putin will fall - despite the evidence to the contrary. In fact, I would argue that the war has actually strengthened the Russians while it has made NATO weaker.
As for the war ending in 2026 - the facts are on the ground, not in Western media. By the way I live in the Wast and I am disappointed in our lack of planning, lack of ability to think strategically, our lack of ability to be realistic - but that is what you get in the hegemonic moment.
Russian dithering and indecision have convinced the West otherwise. At every escalation, we hear that escalation is unpopular, impossible, reckless. All true. At every stage, NATO escalates all the same. Russia fulminates impotently.
Meanwhile, pretend that Russian missiles were hitting the US - the American response would be swift, unmistakable, and brutal. Which is why nobody tries it.
Anyway, in france, democracy already was cancelled with barely a peep out of the electorate. What Macron is doing is forcing the french political class to choose - either he gets his war, or there will be elections which the far right will likely win.
Needless to say, you never give a choice if you don't know how the subject will choose.
Anyway, if you read AltMedia, we've been hearing for four years about Ukraine's imminent collapse. I'd love to believe them.
The difference is that the MSM (or at least the politicians that they serve as mouthpieces for) are far more cynical. They know the real score and see their subject as so much livestock.
I do not know where you are coming from but I trained as a Realist and think like a Realist. You are all over the place.
160K desertions this year alone, Ukrainian admissions that Ukraine is short of manpower, and this year the Russians ability to push at various points continuously (nine points to be exact) where the Ukrainians are failing to halt them, and the pace is increasing. The Ukrainian forces cannot hold out beyond the middle of this year. If you want a heads up - the critical sector is Zaporozhia where the front has been so denuded that it has no stopping power.
This is a very good breakdown of a crisis the EU hoped no one would look at too closely. The "reparations loan" was always a legal and financial farce that no serious individual believed in. It was an attempt to turn frozen Russian assets into a perpetual funding mechanism without ever admitting that outright seizure is impossible under international law. Belgium's resistance simply exposes the core problem in that the scheme collapses the moment anyone asks who is ultimately liable when the music stops.
With Euroclear facing an existential risk, member states drowning in debt, Norway refusing to play guarantor and Ukraine spiraling into corruption scandals and battlefield defeats, the EU is hitting the limits of both its legal creativity and its political will. Nonetheless, even if the assets are not stolen, significant damage is done to the EU's reputation as a trusted entity to safeguard or store financial assets and this whole episode will have consequences down the line on Europe's financial future.
Furthermore, what's emerging is not a path to sustainable support for Kiev but a looming rupture between Brussels, its own financial architecture and a Ukrainian state unable to meet basic expectations. You are right, this entire construct is reaching breaking point, and fast.
Will probably happen just for the collateral US benefit of knocking Euroclear down a few notches, similar how the Swiss banking system was encouraged to burn its reputation
They stole my Grasshopper taxi business forevermore. They called it justified by saying I was driving taxi cab illegally, which again was their way of shutting me down, because they didn't like what I was saying. No one ever called it stealing, no one ever said they stole my business, the time I spent in solitary isolation was never stolen from me, and the fact of me being born in Russia had nothing to do with them destroying my life, which was never stolen away from me.
They claimed it was for public safety, as much as they claimed the dammed vexxxines scamdemic was about public health. Big Harma Harmacide hacksxxxine Injextion, face diapers , lockdown is jail, the small businesses that were stolen. The loss of all of Womanity, such words were never uttered. But stealing tis, tis still stealing....
So Timur fled to Israel, eh? What. A. Surprise.
This is another facit of Russia's War of Attrition. I have argued in the past that the Russians are attriting Ukrainian manpower, and Western materiality and will. This is clearly a case of an example of material attrition. The EU states are in desperate financial straits, and the frozen Russian assets are the only spare cash left, only there is a whole lot of fishhooks if this is used. In the end, no Western state will want to face the consequences if the money is stolen for use in Ukraine, but in the end Ukraine ceases to be a functional state at the end of the war, unable to repay any loan which EU countries will have to pay back to Russia plus penalties.
Russia is by no means attriting european will. In fact, the european elites are united as never before. Russian dithering and indecision has caused them to smell blood and they will be satisfied with nothing but blood.
To give one example, france is sending Ukraine another 100 or so aircraft. Now, everyone knows that Ukraine can never pay for these, but who cares? The aircraft will be delivered all the same.
Everyone knows that those aircraft will be flown and crewed by sheep-dipped NATO personnel, so, clearly, france is not terribly worried about Russian reaction.
I made no comment on Will, only on materiality. All I said was that Will was a target of attrition - think insurgent warfare as an example which is purely attritional ie Afghanistan. At some stage Ukraine will wear out European Will - perhaps with changes in the political governments, and/or because Europe finally figures out they cannot afford it. There is almost no will among the populations of Europe and it is only the elites that are pursuing this. Given democracy how long will that last given the dire economic straits the Europeans are finding themselves in..
Aircraft is not what Ukraine needs right now to prosecute the war and they will do little to affect the outcome. But lets take this 100 French aircraft as a thought experiment - lets say they really are produced and given to Ukraine. They have not been produced yet. According to sources France produces two Rafales per month, lets theoretically say that delivery starts in January 2026, and in 2027 they increase production to three making a total of 96 aircraft at the beginning of 2028, and a further four in 2028, making it 100 aircraft. If they go this route, it is weaponized Keynesianism, and the French Government is hoping the chief function is to create jobs and money.
Or they could denude the French Airforce, as the British and Danes have done with their artillery, by giving 100 planes from air units - a dangerous and impractical policy.
And these aircraft will take at least over a year, even if flown by foreign pilots already familiar with French Aircraft, to become effective and probably longer because you will need to put the infrastructure in place, train the ground crews to service the aircraft - and they will be Ukrainian, and all the other supporting installations that go with it. WILL THE WAR LAST THAT LONG - I doubt it will go beyond next year. And that is not even counting the Russian targeting of the airfields and training grounds which will significantly hamper deployment.
We've been hearing that Ukraine is collapsing for four years now, but it never seems to happen. The aircraft, BTW, will be taken from existing french inventories. They have plenty of reserve airframes. And yes, those ground crews, pilots, etc. will be sheep-dipped NATO personnel.
Anyway, the european plan, the only real plan, was ever always only the same - get the Americans to ride to their rescue again. Whether that takes place as directly or whether the Americans have to step in rather than leave their catamites hanging out to dry is of no consequence.
This plan is proceeding apace, aided by Russian dithering and Trump's imbecility. And no, democracy will not save us. The europeans have demonstrated that democracy is conditional, all to barely a peep of protest.
This, BTW, is the real genesis of the "european zero tariff trade deal". This token of european submission can be withdrawn at any time, should Trump not give the europeans the war they so crave.
The european rulers are paying no price at all, which is why their will for war remains unslaked.
Won't work. The French, as with most Western countries including the US, are casualty adverse. Sending French personnel will mean sending some home in body bags. The French population and even the political elites revolted the last time Macron even hinted at sending forces to Ukraine - look at earlier. Macron might propose as such but saying and doing are two different things. The French will not stand for it.
If they are pulling the aircraft from war stock then allow 6 months at least to bring them up to an operational standard. Also, you have not addressed the infrastructure question in Ukraine, liaison or all the other myriad control and coordination issues that need to be addressed - all while under Russian fire and interdiction.
As for four years of Ukraine is about to fall - where is the proof? Apart for the first few weeks of the war, the only talk in four continuous years in the West is that Russia and Putin will fall - despite the evidence to the contrary. In fact, I would argue that the war has actually strengthened the Russians while it has made NATO weaker.
As for the war ending in 2026 - the facts are on the ground, not in Western media. By the way I live in the Wast and I am disappointed in our lack of planning, lack of ability to think strategically, our lack of ability to be realistic - but that is what you get in the hegemonic moment.
Russian dithering and indecision have convinced the West otherwise. At every escalation, we hear that escalation is unpopular, impossible, reckless. All true. At every stage, NATO escalates all the same. Russia fulminates impotently.
Meanwhile, pretend that Russian missiles were hitting the US - the American response would be swift, unmistakable, and brutal. Which is why nobody tries it.
Anyway, in france, democracy already was cancelled with barely a peep out of the electorate. What Macron is doing is forcing the french political class to choose - either he gets his war, or there will be elections which the far right will likely win.
Needless to say, you never give a choice if you don't know how the subject will choose.
Anyway, if you read AltMedia, we've been hearing for four years about Ukraine's imminent collapse. I'd love to believe them.
The difference is that the MSM (or at least the politicians that they serve as mouthpieces for) are far more cynical. They know the real score and see their subject as so much livestock.
I do not know where you are coming from but I trained as a Realist and think like a Realist. You are all over the place.
160K desertions this year alone, Ukrainian admissions that Ukraine is short of manpower, and this year the Russians ability to push at various points continuously (nine points to be exact) where the Ukrainians are failing to halt them, and the pace is increasing. The Ukrainian forces cannot hold out beyond the middle of this year. If you want a heads up - the critical sector is Zaporozhia where the front has been so denuded that it has no stopping power.
Anyway life's too short.
This is a very good breakdown of a crisis the EU hoped no one would look at too closely. The "reparations loan" was always a legal and financial farce that no serious individual believed in. It was an attempt to turn frozen Russian assets into a perpetual funding mechanism without ever admitting that outright seizure is impossible under international law. Belgium's resistance simply exposes the core problem in that the scheme collapses the moment anyone asks who is ultimately liable when the music stops.
With Euroclear facing an existential risk, member states drowning in debt, Norway refusing to play guarantor and Ukraine spiraling into corruption scandals and battlefield defeats, the EU is hitting the limits of both its legal creativity and its political will. Nonetheless, even if the assets are not stolen, significant damage is done to the EU's reputation as a trusted entity to safeguard or store financial assets and this whole episode will have consequences down the line on Europe's financial future.
Furthermore, what's emerging is not a path to sustainable support for Kiev but a looming rupture between Brussels, its own financial architecture and a Ukrainian state unable to meet basic expectations. You are right, this entire construct is reaching breaking point, and fast.
Will probably happen just for the collateral US benefit of knocking Euroclear down a few notches, similar how the Swiss banking system was encouraged to burn its reputation
Of course the reparations scheme will go ahead and nobody in europe gives a rat's ass whether it is legal or not.
Now, let's look more closely at the role the latest (doubtless entirely founded) allegations of Zelenskii corruption play in this deadlock.
They stole my Grasshopper taxi business forevermore. They called it justified by saying I was driving taxi cab illegally, which again was their way of shutting me down, because they didn't like what I was saying. No one ever called it stealing, no one ever said they stole my business, the time I spent in solitary isolation was never stolen from me, and the fact of me being born in Russia had nothing to do with them destroying my life, which was never stolen away from me.
They claimed it was for public safety, as much as they claimed the dammed vexxxines scamdemic was about public health. Big Harma Harmacide hacksxxxine Injextion, face diapers , lockdown is jail, the small businesses that were stolen. The loss of all of Womanity, such words were never uttered. But stealing tis, tis still stealing....